Safaricom (SCOM) - 2026-03-20
A structured company-level breakdown with key risks and watchpoints.
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Key Takeaways
- [2026-03-19] Earnings: • Safaricom Plc HY'25 Earnings Note (Earnings Filing) – Shareholder net earnings declined 17.7% y/y to KES 28.12Bn due to Ethiopian forex reforms; Kenyan ops posted KES 47.50Bn profit while Ethiopia reported a KES 19.39Bn loss (Birr depreciation impact: KES 17.5Bn).
- Key Highlights – Group revenues rose 15.1% y/y to KES 189.42Bn (driven by M-Pesa +25.6% y/y and Mobile Data +20.2% y/y). CAPEX surged 40.1% y/y to KES 58.69Bn, with Ethiopia’s breakeven target pushed to FY’27 (from FY’26) amid Birr depreciation and competition from Ethio Telecom.
- Risks & Outlook – Maintained HOLD rating (target price: KES 16.60, ~7.8% upside). Risks include Ethiopian currency devaluation, competitive pressures, and margin compression (net profit margin fell to 5.3% vs. 16.5% prior year). Strategic opportunities in M-Pesa expansion and insurance license acquisition noted.
Valuation Snapshot
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Valuation
No clean ratio extracted
neutralEarnings Trend
Review latest filing
neutralCash Flow Signal
Check OCF quality
neutralRisk Matrix
Earnings sensitivity to rates, FX, or demand shocks.
Regulatory or policy shifts that can alter margin structure.
Execution slippage versus published strategic guidance.
Business Snapshot
Safaricom (SCOM) remains relevant to NSE portfolios due to scale, liquidity, and recurring institutional interest.
Financial Trend
- [2026-03-19] Earnings: • Safaricom Plc HY'25 Earnings Note (Earnings Filing) – Shareholder net earnings declined 17.7% y/y to KES 28.12Bn due to Ethiopian forex reforms; Kenyan ops posted KES 47.50Bn profit while Ethiopia reported a KES 19.39Bn loss (Birr depreciation impact: KES 17.5Bn).
- Key Highlights – Group revenues rose 15.1% y/y to KES 189.42Bn (driven by M-Pesa +25.6% y/y and Mobile Data +20.2% y/y). CAPEX surged 40.1% y/y to KES 58.69Bn, with Ethiopia’s breakeven target pushed to FY’27 (from FY’26) amid Birr depreciation and competition from Ethio Telecom.
- Risks & Outlook – Maintained HOLD rating (target price: KES 16.60, ~7.8% upside). Risks include Ethiopian currency devaluation, competitive pressures, and margin compression (net profit margin fell to 5.3% vs. 16.5% prior year). Strategic opportunities in M-Pesa expansion and insurance license acquisition noted.
Valuation Lens
Anchor valuation on earnings durability, cash conversion, and growth visibility instead of single-period headline multiples.
Risks
- Earnings sensitivity to rates, FX, or demand shocks.
- Regulatory or policy shifts that can alter margin structure.
- Execution slippage versus published strategic guidance.
Rates & Liquidity Context
- Link company valuation sensitivity to current CBR, T-bill, and interbank conditions where possible.
- Track whether money-market shifts are supportive or restrictive for this company.
What To Watch
- Next filing cycle for earnings-quality confirmation.
- Management commentary versus realized numbers.
- Relative valuation versus close peers.
Informational only, not investment advice.
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