Safaricom (SCOM) - 2026-03-20
A structured company-level breakdown with key risks and watchpoints.
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Key Takeaways
- [2026-03-19] Earnings: • Safaricom Plc HY'25 Earnings Note (Earnings Filing) – Shareholder net earnings declined 17.7% y/y to KES 28.12Bn due to Ethiopian forex reforms; Kenyan ops posted KES 47.50Bn profit while Ethiopia reported a KES 19.39Bn loss (Birr depreciation impact: KES 17.5Bn).
- Key Highlights – Group revenues rose 15.1% y/y to KES 189.42Bn (driven by M-Pesa +25.6% y/y and Mobile Data +20.2% y/y). CAPEX surged 40.1% y/y to KES 58.69Bn, with Ethiopia’s breakeven target pushed to FY’27 (from FY’26) amid Birr depreciation and competition from Ethio Telecom.
- Risks & Outlook – Maintained HOLD rating (target price: KES 16.60, ~7.8% upside). Risks include Ethiopian currency devaluation, competitive pressures, and margin compression (net profit margin fell to 5.3% vs. 16.5% prior year). Strategic opportunities in M-Pesa expansion and insurance license acquisition noted.
Valuation Snapshot
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Valuation
No clean ratio extracted
neutralEarnings Trend
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neutralCash Flow Signal
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neutralRisk Matrix
Earnings sensitivity to rates, FX, or demand shocks.
Regulatory or policy shifts that can alter margin structure.
Execution slippage versus published strategic guidance.
Safaricom (SCOM) - 2026-03-20
Business Snapshot
Safaricom (SCOM) remains relevant to NSE portfolios due to scale, liquidity, and recurring institutional interest.
Financial Trend
- [2026-03-19] Earnings: • Safaricom Plc HY'25 Earnings Note (Earnings Filing) – Shareholder net earnings declined 17.7% y/y to KES 28.12Bn due to Ethiopian forex reforms; Kenyan ops posted KES 47.50Bn profit while Ethiopia reported a KES 19.39Bn loss (Birr depreciation impact: KES 17.5Bn).
- Key Highlights – Group revenues rose 15.1% y/y to KES 189.42Bn (driven by M-Pesa +25.6% y/y and Mobile Data +20.2% y/y). CAPEX surged 40.1% y/y to KES 58.69Bn, with Ethiopia’s breakeven target pushed to FY’27 (from FY’26) amid Birr depreciation and competition from Ethio Telecom.
- Risks & Outlook – Maintained HOLD rating (target price: KES 16.60, ~7.8% upside). Risks include Ethiopian currency devaluation, competitive pressures, and margin compression (net profit margin fell to 5.3% vs. 16.5% prior year). Strategic opportunities in M-Pesa expansion and insurance license acquisition noted.
Valuation Lens
Anchor valuation on earnings durability, cash conversion, and growth visibility instead of single-period headline multiples.
Risks
- Earnings sensitivity to rates, FX, or demand shocks.
- Regulatory or policy shifts that can alter margin structure.
- Execution slippage versus published strategic guidance.
Rates & Liquidity Context
- Link company valuation sensitivity to current CBR, T-bill, and interbank conditions where possible.
- Track whether money-market shifts are supportive or restrictive for this company.
What To Watch
- Next filing cycle for earnings-quality confirmation.
- Management commentary versus realized numbers.
- Relative valuation versus close peers.
Informational only, not investment advice.
Continue This Topic
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