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Deep Dive

Safaricom (SCOM) - 2026-03-20

A structured company-level breakdown with key risks and watchpoints.

ND

NSEinsider Desk

Market Intelligence Desk

2 min read3 verified sourcesLast updated 21 Mar 2026
nsekenyadeep-divesafaricom

Key Takeaways

  • [2026-03-20] Earnings: • Safaricom Earnings filing captured from source URL.
  • Source: https://www.aib-axysafrica.com/research/1772715042391-bf5a0392ebbb8814f0453c810e307917a87d74.pdf
  • [2026-03-19] Earnings: • Safaricom Plc HY'25 Earnings Note (Earnings Filing) – Shareholder net earnings declined 17.7% y/y to KES 28.12Bn due to Ethiopian forex reforms; Kenyan ops posted KES 47.50Bn profit while Ethiopia reported a KES 19.39Bn loss (Birr depreciation impact: KES 17.5Bn).

Valuation Snapshot

Auto-extracted from report content

Valuation

No clean ratio extracted

neutral

Earnings Trend

Review latest filing

neutral

Cash Flow Signal

Check OCF quality

neutral

Risk Matrix

Earnings sensitivity to rates, FX, or demand shocks.

Impact: highLikelihood: low

Regulatory or policy shifts that can alter margin structure.

Impact: highLikelihood: low

Execution slippage versus published strategic guidance.

Impact: mediumLikelihood: low

Safaricom (SCOM) - 2026-03-20

Business Snapshot

Safaricom (SCOM) remains relevant to NSE portfolios due to scale, liquidity, and recurring institutional interest.

Financial Trend

  • [2026-03-20] Earnings: • Safaricom Earnings filing captured from source URL.
  • Source: https://www.aib-axysafrica.com/research/1772715042391-bf5a03_92ebbb8814f0453c810e307917a87d74.pdf
  • [2026-03-19] Earnings: • Safaricom Plc HY'25 Earnings Note (Earnings Filing) – Shareholder net earnings declined 17.7% y/y to KES 28.12Bn due to Ethiopian forex reforms; Kenyan ops posted KES 47.50Bn profit while Ethiopia reported a KES 19.39Bn loss (Birr depreciation impact: KES 17.5Bn).
  • Key Highlights – Group revenues rose 15.1% y/y to KES 189.42Bn (driven by M-Pesa +25.6% y/y and Mobile Data +20.2% y/y). CAPEX surged 40.1% y/y to KES 58.69Bn, with Ethiopia’s breakeven target pushed to FY’27 (from FY’26) amid Birr depreciation and competition from Ethio Telecom.
  • Risks & Outlook – Maintained HOLD rating (target price: KES 16.60, ~7.8% upside). Risks include Ethiopian currency devaluation, competitive pressures, and margin compression (net profit margin fell to 5.3% vs. 16.5% prior year). Strategic opportunities in M-Pesa expansion and insurance license acquisition noted.
  • Source: https://www.aib-axysafrica.com/research/1772716058732-bf5a03_3effb807cd744123a244edcfd26fd91a.pdf
  • [2026-03-19] Earnings: • Safaricom Earnings filing captured from source URL.
  • Source: https://fib.co.ke/wp-content/uploads/FIB_Safaricom-FY2021-Preview.pdf

Valuation Lens

Anchor valuation on earnings durability, cash conversion, and growth visibility instead of single-period headline multiples.

Risks

  • Earnings sensitivity to rates, FX, or demand shocks.
  • Regulatory or policy shifts that can alter margin structure.
  • Execution slippage versus published strategic guidance.

Rates & Liquidity Context

  • Link company valuation sensitivity to current CBR, T-bill, and interbank conditions where possible.
  • Track whether money-market shifts are supportive or restrictive for this company.

What To Watch

  • Next filing cycle for earnings-quality confirmation.
  • Management commentary versus realized numbers.
  • Relative valuation versus close peers.

Informational only, not investment advice.

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