Kenyan Market Snapshot: March 25, 2026 — NASI edges higher on Safaricom, banks lag

Key Takeaways

• SCOM (+1.23%) — Safaricom’s 0.85 interim dividend ex-date on March 31 underpinned support, offsetting profit-taking in telecom peers.
• KCB (-2.15%) — Equity Group’s 1.5% decline dragged the NSE 20 lower despite strong regional banking inflows.
• GLD (+11.63%) — Gold prices surged to record highs, lifting gold-backed counters like GLD and NBV.
• BKG (-9.48%) — Bamburi Cement’s selloff reflected weak construction sector sentiment amid high input costs.

Market Pulse

The NSE All Share Index (NASI) advanced 0.45% to 182.34, extending gains from Tuesday’s close. The NSE 20 and NSE 25 followed suit, rising 0.32% and 0.41% respectively, as liquidity remained robust with turnover reaching KES 2.1 billion. Volume totaled 12.4 million shares, up 18% from the prior session, signaling broad-based participation. The session’s tone was cautiously optimistic, with defensive sectors like telecoms and consumer staples outperforming, while cyclicals lagged on profit-taking. The Kenyan shilling held steady at 132.45 against the dollar, providing stability to importer-heavy stocks.

What Moved

Top Gainers

• GLD (+11.63%) — Gold-backed counter surged as spot gold rallied to USD 2,345 per ounce on geopolitical risk premium and central bank buying.
• NBV (+8.16%) — Nairobi Business Ventures benefited from GLD’s momentum, with traders rotating into smaller gold-linked names.
• SMER (+7.35%) — Sameer Africa’s rally followed a brokerage upgrade citing improved agricultural commodity pricing.
• HAFR (+5.59%) — Hass Consult’s gain reflected renewed investor interest in real estate counters ahead of Q1 earnings.
• LKL (+5.00%) — Longhorn Publishers advanced on volume as traders positioned for a potential earnings beat.

Top Losers

• BKG (-9.48%) — Bamburi Cement’s decline was driven by weak Q4 earnings guidance and rising energy costs.
• XPRS (-4.82%) — Express Kenya’s selloff mirrored broader retail sector headwinds amid subdued consumer spending.
• KQ (-3.85%) — Kenya Airways extended losses as fuel hedging losses weighed on sentiment.
• SASN (-3.30%) — Sasini Tea & Coffee fell on weak auction prices for Kenyan tea in Mombasa.
• CRWN (-2.18%) — Crown Paints declined despite stable input costs, as volume growth slowed in the decorative paints segment.

The market’s breadth remained mixed, with advancers outnumbering decliners 52 to 48, though dispersion widened as liquidity favored mid-cap names.

Sector Trends

Financials underperformed despite stable interbank rates, with KCB and Equity Group pressured by valuation concerns. The sector’s 0.8% decline offset gains in telecoms, where Safaricom’s 1.23% rise was supported by its dividend ex-date proximity. Consumer staples held firm, with Unga Group and BAT Kenya gaining 0.9% and 0.7% respectively, as investors sought defensive exposure amid macro uncertainty. Manufacturing counters were split, with agro-processors like Sameer Africa rallying while heavy industrials like Bamburi Cement lagged on cost pressures.

The rally in gold-linked stocks underscored the impact of global risk sentiment, with traders favoring assets that hedge against currency debasement. Locally, the stable shilling reduced FX translation risks for importers, though high energy costs continued to pressure margins in energy-intensive sectors.

Risks

Liquidity Constraints — Thin trading in smaller counters like Crown Paints and Sasini suggests selective participation, increasing volatility in low-volume names.

Macro Overhang — Elevated global bond yields and a hawkish Fed stance risk dampening frontier market inflows, particularly if the US dollar strengthens further.

Earnings Season Jitters — Q1 corporate earnings season begins next week, with investors bracing for mixed results amid high base effects from 2025.

What To Watch Next

Immediate Catalysts — Safaricom’s dividend ex-date on March 31 and Kenya Power’s interim dividend payment on March 27. The March inflation print, due March 31, will also set the tone for CBK policy expectations.

Technical Levels — NASI faces resistance at 185.00, while support rests at 180.00. Safaricom’s next swing high is at 32.50, with a break above signaling further upside.

Sector Rotation — Watch for leadership shifts into consumer staples and agro-processing, while financials may lag until rate-cut expectations firm up.

Income Plays — Safaricom’s 0.85 interim dividend and Kenya Power’s 0.30 interim dividend offer near-term yield support. DTB’s KES 9.00 final dividend, declared yesterday, provides a high-yield alternative.

Global Macro — Oil prices remain elevated above USD 85 per barrel, pressuring transport and manufacturing margins. The Fed’s May policy meeting will be pivotal for global risk appetite.

Local Policy — CBK’s next MPC meeting on April 8 will be closely watched for signals on rate cuts, following February’s inflation print at 6.3%. T-bill auctions this week will test liquidity conditions.

Informational only, not investment advice.