Kenyan Market Snapshot: March 26, 2026 — NASI dips 0.45% on cautious trading

Key Takeaways

• Safaricom (SCOM: -2.10%) — Profit-taking after a 15% YTD rally capped gains, with investors locking in gains ahead of FY26 earnings.
• KCB Group (KCB: -1.45%) — Heavy selling in large-cap banks as investors rotated into smaller counters.
• Bamburi Cement (BAMB: +3.20%) — Led midcaps on volume as construction activity signals bottoming.
• Equity Group (EQTY: -0.80%) — Lagged despite strong regional franchise, pressured by regional currency depreciation.

Market Pulse

The NSE All Share Index (NASI) closed at 182.45, down 0.45% on turnover of KES 1.8 billion, a 12% decline from Wednesday’s session. The NSE 20 shed 0.60% to 2,145.20, while the NSE 25 dipped 0.35% to 3,890.10. Decliners outnumbered advancers 58 to 42, reflecting broad-based caution. The session opened with a cautious tone as investors reassessed risk after last week’s sharp rally in blue chips. Volume compression in large caps underscored profit-taking, while midcaps saw selective interest, particularly in industrials and construction.

Macro headwinds—including elevated yields on the 364-day T-bill at 15.8%—continued to weigh on sentiment. The Kenyan shilling weakened 0.3% against the dollar to KES 132.45, pressuring import-heavy stocks. Foreign participation remained subdued at 45% of total turnover, below the 50% YTD average, signaling risk aversion ahead of key data points.

What Moved

Top Gainers

• Bamburi Cement (BAMB: +3.20%) — Volume surged 2.5x as traders targeted the stock following reports of improved construction sector tender awards.
• Co-operative Bank (COOP: +2.05%) — Short-covering after a 7% decline this month, with buyers stepping in near support at KES 38.50.
• Centum Investment (CTUM: +1.80%) — Buying interest in diversified holdings as investors bet on asset monetization.

Top Losers

• Safaricom (SCOM: -2.10%) — Profit-taking after a 15% YTD gain, with sellers targeting the KES 42.50 resistance level.
• KCB Group (KCB: -1.45%) — Large-cap rotation as investors favored smaller banks with higher beta.
• Equity Group (EQTY: -0.80%) — Regional currency pressure offset strong FY25 performance, with Kenyan shilling weakness a key drag.

Breadth remained mixed, with gains concentrated in industrials and construction, while financials and telecoms led declines. Dispersion widened as midcaps outperformed blue chips by 1.2%.

Sector Trends

Financials — The sector underperformed, down 0.75%, as investors shifted capital to midcaps. Regional currency depreciation hurt banks with significant East African operations, while local lenders benefited from stable NPL ratios. The 364-day T-bill yield at 15.8% continues to anchor deposit pricing, supporting net interest margins but constraining loan growth expectations.

Telecoms — Safaricom’s 2.1% decline led the sector lower, despite strong subscriber additions. The stock’s premium valuation—22x forward earnings—left it vulnerable to profit-taking. Airtel Kenya’s modest 0.4% gain reflected selective interest in smaller telecom plays.

Consumer Staples — Mixed performance as Unga Limited (UNGA: +1.20%) benefited from restocking demand, while East African Breweries (EABL: -0.60%) lagged due to regional FX headwinds. Staples remain defensive but lack momentum amid shifting sector leadership.

Manufacturing — Gains in Bamburi Cement and Crown Paints (CRP: +0.90%) reflected improving construction activity and cost discipline. The sector’s 1.1% gain underscored its role as a relative outperformer in today’s session.

Risks

Liquidity Constraints — Thin participation in smaller counters—particularly in the midcap space—limits price discovery and increases volatility. The top 10 stocks accounted for 70% of turnover, highlighting concentration risk.

Macro Overhang — Elevated T-bill yields and a weakening shilling create a dual headwind for equities. The 15.8% yield on the 364-day paper reflects persistent fiscal pressures, while currency weakness erodes regional earnings for Kenyan corporates.

Corporate Earnings Uncertainty — With FY26 earnings season approaching, guidance remains scarce. Investors are pricing in cautious outlooks, particularly in sectors sensitive to FX and interest rates.

What To Watch Next

Immediate Catalysts — The Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes, due Friday, will provide insight into CBK’s inflation and rate trajectory. Regional inflation prints from Uganda and Tanzania, due next week, could also sway sentiment.

Technical Levels — NASI support at 180.00; a break below could trigger further downside toward 175.00. SCOM resistance at KES 42.50 remains a key inflection point for blue-chip sentiment.

Sector Rotation — Watch for leadership shifts from financials to industrials and construction. Midcaps with strong regional exposure—such as Crown Paints and Carbacid—could attract renewed interest if FX pressures ease.

Income Plays — No dividend declarations expected in the near term. However, high-yield stocks like Co-operative Bank (8.2% trailing yield) and KCB Group (7.5%) remain attractive for income-focused portfolios.

Global Macro — Oil prices remain elevated above USD 85/bbl, pressuring input costs for Kenyan manufacturers. The US 10-year yield at 4.25% continues to anchor global risk sentiment, with emerging markets sensitive to any hawkish Fed signals.

Local Policy — The CBK’s weekly T-bill auction results, due Thursday, will test appetite for government paper amid elevated yields. Inflation data for February, scheduled for release on April 2, will be critical for rate expectations.

Informational only, not investment advice.